Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs

arXiv:2604.18576v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present BLF (Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) A linguistic belief state: a...